Rangers 2–0 ST Mirren: Result & Stats | Premiership

Rangers

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

ST Mirren

12/3/2023

Premiership · 1st Phase - 15Ibrox Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Rangers57%

×Draw24%

ST Mirren19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RangersExpected goals in this matchST Mirren

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.74

0.90

Rangers

1.74

ST Mirren

0.90

Rangers creates 93% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 10 away

2.14

creates per match

0.82

0.98

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Rangers

2.14

ST Mirren

0.82

allows per match

Rangers

0.98

ST Mirren

1.33

+0.03on par

finishing

-0.02on par

finishing

Rangers+0.03on par

ST Mirren-0.02on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rangers ↓

ST Mirren →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Rangers or draw

81%

Rangers or ST Mirren

76%

Draw or ST Mirren

43%

Winning margin

Rangers wins by 2+

32%

ST Mirren wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Rangers 1+ goals

82%

Rangers 2+ goals

52%

Rangers 3+ goals

25%

ST Mirren 1+ goals

59%

ST Mirren 2+ goals

23%

ST Mirren 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Rangers (draw refunded)

75%

ST Mirren (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rangers at home — creates 2.14, concedes 0.98 · 12 matches

ST Mirren away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.33 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rangers attack 2.14 + ST Mirren defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.74

ST Mirren attack 0.82 + Rangers defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Rangers scores more

57%

level

24%

ST Mirren scores more

19%

Rangers at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Rangers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff