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Rangers vs ST Johnstone — Premiership 2018

Rangers
Rangers
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
ST Johnstone
ST Johnstone
12/20/2023PremiershipPremiership · 1st Phase - 12Ibrox Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 121+ matches

Rangers66%
×Draw20%
ST Johnstone14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rangers
2.03
ST Johnstone
0.79

Rangers creates 157% more chances

Season form · 135 home / 121 away

creates per match

Rangers
2.47
ST Johnstone
0.92

allows per match

Rangers
0.65
ST Johnstone
1.58

finishing

Rangers+0.00on par
ST Johnstone+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rangers ↓

ST Johnstone →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Rangers or draw
86%
Rangers or ST Johnstone
80%
Draw or ST Johnstone
34%

Winning margin

Rangers wins by 2+
41%
ST Johnstone wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Rangers 1+ goals
87%
Rangers 2+ goals
60%
Rangers 3+ goals
33%
ST Johnstone 1+ goals
55%
ST Johnstone 2+ goals
19%
ST Johnstone 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Rangers (draw refunded)
83%
ST Johnstone (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rangers at home — creates 2.47, concedes 0.65 · 135 matches

ST Johnstone away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.58 · 121 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rangers attack 2.47 + ST Johnstone defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 2.03

ST Johnstone attack 0.92 + Rangers defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Rangers scores more
66%
level
20%
ST Johnstone scores more
14%

Rangers at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Rangers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premiership: Rangers 2–0 ST Johnstone

Rangers beat ST Johnstone 2-0 in Premiership on December 20, 2023.

The match was played at Ibrox Stadium in Glasgow.