Rangers 0–0 ST Johnstone: Result & Stats | FA Cup

Rangers

Pens

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

ST Johnstone

J. Defoe 120+5' (pen)

B. Barišić 120+3' (pen)

J. Tavernier 117'

A. McCann 120+8' (pen)

J. Kerr 120+6' (pen)

C. Booth 120+4' (pen)

C. Kane 120+2'

L. Craig 120+2' (pen)

4/25/2021

FA Cup · Quarter-finalsIbrox Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Rangers63%

×Draw22%

ST Johnstone15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RangersExpected goals in this matchST Johnstone

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.84

0.76

Rangers

1.84

ST Johnstone

0.76

Rangers creates 142% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 5 away

3.08

creates per match

1.20

0.31

allows per match

0.60

creates per match

Rangers

3.08

ST Johnstone

1.20

allows per match

Rangers

0.31

ST Johnstone

0.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rangers+0.00on par

ST Johnstone+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rangers ↓

ST Johnstone →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Rangers or draw

85%

Rangers or ST Johnstone

78%

Draw or ST Johnstone

37%

Winning margin

Rangers wins by 2+

37%

ST Johnstone wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Rangers 1+ goals

84%

Rangers 2+ goals

55%

Rangers 3+ goals

28%

ST Johnstone 1+ goals

53%

ST Johnstone 2+ goals

18%

ST Johnstone 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Rangers (draw refunded)

81%

ST Johnstone (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rangers at home — creates 3.08, concedes 0.31 · 13 matches

ST Johnstone away — creates 1.20, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rangers attack 3.08 + ST Johnstone defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 1.84

ST Johnstone attack 1.20 + Rangers defence 0.31 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Rangers scores more

63%

level

22%

ST Johnstone scores more

15%

Rangers at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Rangers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

36'

36'

45'

54'

58'

68'

71'

71'

C. Bryson← D. Wotherspoon

75'

M. O'Halloran← S. May

81'

K. Roofe← A. Morelos

90'

Chris Kane

101'

C. Booth← S. Tanser

111'

J. Simpson← F. Helander

117'

J. Tavernier↳ J. Ayodele-Aribo

120+4'

J. Defoe← S. Davis

120+2'

C. Kane↳ Z. Clark

120+1'

J. TavernierMissed penalty

120+2'

L. CraigPenalty

120+3'

B. BarišićPenalty

120+4'

C. BoothPenalty

120+5'

J. DefoePenalty

120+6'

J. KerrPenalty

120+7'

K. RoofeMissed penalty

120+8'

A. McCannPenalty

Rangers4-3-3

ST3-4-1-2

17

▼

Melamed

14

▼

May

18

⚽

McCann

10

▼

Wotherspo

26

⚽

Craig

5

⚽

4

6

19

3

▼

Tanser

1

A

Clark

1

McGregor

31

⚽

Barišić

5

▼

Helander

6

Goldson

2

⚽

Tavernier

17

A

Ayodele-A

18

Kamara

10

▼

Davis

14

Kent

20

▼

Morelos

7

▼

Hagi

Manager: S. Gerrard

68'▲S. Wright←▼I. Hagi

81'▲K. Roofe←▼A. Morelos

111'▲J. Simpson←▼F. Helander

120+4'▲J. Defoe←▼S. Davis

Rangers substitutes

23Wright25Roofe4Simpson9Defoe33McLaughlin61King11Itten24Stewart

Manager: C. Davidson

58'▲C. Kane←▼G. Melamed

71'▲C. Bryson←▼D. Wotherspoon

75'▲M. O'Halloran←▼S. May

101'▲C. Booth←▼S. Tanser

ST Johnstone substitutes

9Kane13Bryson11O'Halloran24Booth12Parish15Gilmour7Conway46Ferguson2Brown