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Rangers vs ST Johnstone — Premiership 2026

Rangers
Rangers
CANC
00:00
ST Johnstone
ST Johnstone
11/2/2019PremiershipPremiership · Round 12Ibrox Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 115+ matches

Rangers65%
×Draw21%
ST Johnstone14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rangers
1.96
ST Johnstone
0.79

Rangers creates 148% more chances

Season form · 130 home / 115 away

creates per match

Rangers
2.41
ST Johnstone
0.93

allows per match

Rangers
0.65
ST Johnstone
1.51

finishing

Rangers+0.00on par
ST Johnstone+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rangers ↓

ST Johnstone →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Rangers or draw
86%
Rangers or ST Johnstone
79%
Draw or ST Johnstone
35%

Winning margin

Rangers wins by 2+
40%
ST Johnstone wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Rangers 1+ goals
86%
Rangers 2+ goals
58%
Rangers 3+ goals
31%
ST Johnstone 1+ goals
55%
ST Johnstone 2+ goals
19%
ST Johnstone 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Rangers (draw refunded)
82%
ST Johnstone (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rangers at home — creates 2.41, concedes 0.65 · 130 matches

ST Johnstone away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.51 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rangers attack 2.41 + ST Johnstone defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.96

ST Johnstone attack 0.93 + Rangers defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Rangers scores more
65%
level
21%
ST Johnstone scores more
14%

Rangers at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Rangers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Rangers host ST Johnstone

November 2, 2019: Rangers take on ST Johnstone in Premiership. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Rangers host ST Johnstone at Ibrox Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.