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Rangers vs Heart Of Midlothian — Premiership 2018

Rangers
Rangers
FT
5 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Heart Of Midlothian
Heart Of Midlothian
2/24/2024PremiershipPremiership · 1st Phase - 27Ibrox Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Rangers44%
×Draw25%
Heart Of Midlothian32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rangers
1.56
Heart Of Midlothian
1.29

Rangers creates 21% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 10 away

creates per match

Rangers
2.14
Heart Of Midlothian
1.60

allows per match

Rangers
0.98
Heart Of Midlothian
0.98

finishing

Rangers+0.03on par
Heart Of Midlothian-0.20scores less

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rangers ↓

Heart Of Midlothian →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Rangers or draw
68%
Rangers or Heart Of Midlothian
75%
Draw or Heart Of Midlothian
56%

Winning margin

Rangers wins by 2+
22%
Heart Of Midlothian wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Rangers 1+ goals
79%
Rangers 2+ goals
46%
Rangers 3+ goals
21%
Heart Of Midlothian 1+ goals
72%
Heart Of Midlothian 2+ goals
37%
Heart Of Midlothian 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Rangers (draw refunded)
58%
Heart Of Midlothian (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rangers at home — creates 2.14, concedes 0.98 · 12 matches

Heart Of Midlothian away — creates 1.60, concedes 0.98 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rangers attack 2.14 + Heart Of Midlothian defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.56

Heart Of Midlothian attack 1.60 + Rangers defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Rangers scores more
44%
level
25%
Heart Of Midlothian scores more
32%

Rangers at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Rangers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premiership: Rangers 5–0 Heart Of Midlothian

Rangers beat Heart Of Midlothian 5-0 in Premiership on February 24, 2024.

The match was played at Ibrox Stadium in Glasgow.