Rangers 3–0 Heart Of Midlothian: Result & Stats

Rangers

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Heart Of Midlothian

11/3/2019

League Cup · Semi-finalsHampden Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Rangers46%

×Draw24%

Heart Of Midlothian30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RangersExpected goals in this matchHeart Of Midlothian

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

1.28

Rangers

1.66

Heart Of Midlothian

1.28

Rangers creates 30% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 14 away

2.38

creates per match

1.93

0.63

allows per match

0.93

creates per match

Rangers

2.38

Heart Of Midlothian

1.93

allows per match

Rangers

0.63

Heart Of Midlothian

0.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rangers+0.00on par

Heart Of Midlothian+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rangers ↓

Heart Of Midlothian →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Rangers or draw

70%

Rangers or Heart Of Midlothian

76%

Draw or Heart Of Midlothian

54%

Winning margin

Rangers wins by 2+

24%

Heart Of Midlothian wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Rangers 1+ goals

81%

Rangers 2+ goals

49%

Rangers 3+ goals

23%

Heart Of Midlothian 1+ goals

72%

Heart Of Midlothian 2+ goals

37%

Heart Of Midlothian 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Rangers (draw refunded)

61%

Heart Of Midlothian (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rangers at home — creates 2.38, concedes 0.63 · 16 matches

Heart Of Midlothian away — creates 1.93, concedes 0.93 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rangers attack 2.38 + Heart Of Midlothian defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.66

Heart Of Midlothian attack 1.93 + Rangers defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Rangers scores more

46%

level

24%

Heart Of Midlothian scores more

30%

Rangers at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Rangers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff