Rangers 3–0 Dundee: Result & Stats | League Cup

Rangers

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Dundee

C. Dessers 66', 18'

J. Tavernier 50' (pen)

9/21/2024

League Cup · Quarter-finalsIbrox Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Rangers42%

×Draw25%

Dundee34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RangersExpected goals in this matchDundee

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.37

Rangers

1.56

Dundee

1.37

Rangers creates 14% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 19 away

2.38

creates per match

2.11

0.63

allows per match

0.74

creates per match

Rangers

2.38

Dundee

2.11

allows per match

Rangers

0.63

Dundee

0.74

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rangers+0.00on par

Dundee+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rangers ↓

Dundee →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Rangers or draw

66%

Rangers or Dundee

75%

Draw or Dundee

58%

Winning margin

Rangers wins by 2+

21%

Dundee wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Rangers 1+ goals

79%

Rangers 2+ goals

46%

Rangers 3+ goals

21%

Dundee 1+ goals

75%

Dundee 2+ goals

40%

Dundee 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Rangers (draw refunded)

56%

Dundee (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rangers at home — creates 2.38, concedes 0.63 · 16 matches

Dundee away — creates 2.11, concedes 0.74 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rangers attack 2.38 + Dundee defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 1.56

Dundee attack 2.11 + Rangers defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Rangers scores more

42%

level

25%

Dundee scores more

34%

Rangers at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Rangers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'

C. Dessers↳ J. Tavernier

46'

M. Diomande← D. Sterling

46'

S. Palmer-Houlden← O. Adewumi

49'

M. Sylla

50'

J. TavernierPenalty

66'

C. Dessers↳ N. Bajrami

68'

R. McCausland← V. Černý

68'

H. Igamane← C. Dessers

69'

J. Mulligan← S. Braybrooke

73'

Ó. Cortés← N. Bajrami

77'

E. Ingram← J. McGhee

77'

J. Vetro← S. Tiffoney

77'

C. Main← S. Murray

81'

N. Kasanwirjo← J. Tavernier

Rangers4-3-3

Dundee4-3-3

7

▼

Tiffoney

15

▼

Murray

11

▼

Adewumi

10

Cameron

28

Sylla

22

▼

21

20

29

6

▼

31

1

22

4

5

2

⚽A

▼

Tavernier

11

Lawrence

8

Barron

21

▼

Sterling

18

▼

Černý

9

⚽2

▼

Dessers

14

A

▼

Bajrami

Manager: P. Clement

46'▲M. Diomande←▼D. Sterling

68'▲R. McCausland←▼V. Černý

68'▲H. Igamane←▼C. Dessers

73'▲Ó. Cortés←▼N. Bajrami

81'▲N. Kasanwirjo←▼J. Tavernier

Rangers substitutes

10Diomande45McCausland29Igamane7Cortés24Kasanwirjo20Dowell43Raskin27Balogun31Kelly

Manager: T. Docherty

46'▲S. Palmer-Houlden←▼O. Adewumi

69'▲J. Mulligan←▼S. Braybrooke

77'▲E. Ingram←▼J. McGhee

77'▲J. Vetro←▼S. Tiffoney

77'▲C. Main←▼S. Murray

Dundee substitutes

23Palmer-Houlden8Mulligan2Ingram47Vetro9Main1McCracken4Astley18Reilly19Robertson