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Rangers vs Dauphins Noirs — Ligue 1 2019

Rangers
Rangers
FT
2 – 1
Dauphins Noirs
Dauphins Noirs
12/11/2020Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 9Stade des Martyrs de la Pentecôte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Rangers41%
×Draw29%
Dauphins Noirs29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rangers
1.20
Dauphins Noirs
0.96

Rangers creates 25% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 77 away

creates per match

Rangers
1.03
Dauphins Noirs
0.78

allows per match

Rangers
1.14
Dauphins Noirs
1.36

finishing

Rangers+0.00on par
Dauphins Noirs+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rangers ↓

Dauphins Noirs →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Rangers or draw
71%
Rangers or Dauphins Noirs
71%
Draw or Dauphins Noirs
59%

Winning margin

Rangers wins by 2+
18%
Dauphins Noirs wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Rangers 1+ goals
70%
Rangers 2+ goals
34%
Rangers 3+ goals
12%
Dauphins Noirs 1+ goals
62%
Dauphins Noirs 2+ goals
25%
Dauphins Noirs 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Rangers (draw refunded)
59%
Dauphins Noirs (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rangers at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.14 · 90 matches

Dauphins Noirs away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.36 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rangers attack 1.03 + Dauphins Noirs defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.20

Dauphins Noirs attack 0.78 + Rangers defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Rangers scores more
41%
level
29%
Dauphins Noirs scores more
29%

Rangers at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Rangers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rangers vs Dauphins Noirs

Rangers beat Dauphins Noirs 2-1 in Ligue 1 on December 11, 2020.

The match was played at Stade des Martyrs de la Pentecôte in Kinshasa.