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Rangers vs Celtic — Premiership 2025

Rangers
Rangers
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Celtic
Celtic
8/31/2025PremiershipPremiership · 1st Phase - 4Ibrox Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Rangers47%
×Draw23%
Celtic30%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rangers
1.79
Celtic
1.39

Rangers creates 29% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 9 away

creates per match

Rangers
2.23
Celtic
1.84

allows per match

Rangers
0.94
Celtic
1.34

finishing

Rangers-0.05on par
Celtic+0.16scores more

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rangers ↓

Celtic →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Rangers or draw
70%
Rangers or Celtic
77%
Draw or Celtic
53%

Winning margin

Rangers wins by 2+
25%
Celtic wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Rangers 1+ goals
83%
Rangers 2+ goals
53%
Rangers 3+ goals
26%
Celtic 1+ goals
75%
Celtic 2+ goals
40%
Celtic 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Rangers (draw refunded)
61%
Celtic (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rangers at home — creates 2.23, concedes 0.94 · 11 matches

Celtic away — creates 1.84, concedes 1.34 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rangers attack 2.23 + Celtic defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.79

Celtic attack 1.84 + Rangers defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Rangers scores more
47%
level
23%
Celtic scores more
30%

Rangers at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Rangers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rangers vs Celtic

Rangers and Celtic drew 0-0 in Premiership on August 31, 2025.

The match was played at Ibrox Stadium in Glasgow.