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Rangers vs Anges Verts — Ligue 1 2019

Rangers
Rangers
FT
1 – 0
Anges Verts
Anges Verts
11/15/2024Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 9Stade des Martyrs de la Pentecôte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Rangers50%
×Draw27%
Anges Verts23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rangers
1.43
Anges Verts
0.89

Rangers creates 61% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 30 away

creates per match

Rangers
1.03
Anges Verts
0.63

allows per match

Rangers
1.14
Anges Verts
1.83

finishing

Rangers+0.00on par
Anges Verts+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rangers ↓

Anges Verts →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Rangers or draw
77%
Rangers or Anges Verts
73%
Draw or Anges Verts
50%

Winning margin

Rangers wins by 2+
24%
Anges Verts wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Rangers 1+ goals
76%
Rangers 2+ goals
42%
Rangers 3+ goals
17%
Anges Verts 1+ goals
59%
Anges Verts 2+ goals
22%
Anges Verts 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Rangers (draw refunded)
68%
Anges Verts (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rangers at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.14 · 90 matches

Anges Verts away — creates 0.63, concedes 1.83 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rangers attack 1.03 + Anges Verts defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.43

Anges Verts attack 0.63 + Rangers defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Rangers scores more
50%
level
27%
Anges Verts scores more
23%

Rangers at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Rangers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 1: Rangers 1–0 Anges Verts

Rangers beat Anges Verts 1-0 in Ligue 1 on November 15, 2024.

The match was played at Stade des Martyrs de la Pentecôte in Kinshasa.