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Rangers vs Aberdeen — League Cup 2018

Rangers
Rangersadvanced
AET
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Aberdeen
Aberdeen
1/15/2023League CupLeague Cup · Semi-finalsHampden Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Rangers48%
×Draw24%
Aberdeen28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rangers
1.69
Aberdeen
1.25

Rangers creates 35% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 14 away

creates per match

Rangers
2.38
Aberdeen
1.86

allows per match

Rangers
0.63
Aberdeen
1.00

finishing

Rangers+0.00on par
Aberdeen+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rangers ↓

Aberdeen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Rangers or draw
72%
Rangers or Aberdeen
76%
Draw or Aberdeen
52%

Winning margin

Rangers wins by 2+
25%
Aberdeen wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Rangers 1+ goals
82%
Rangers 2+ goals
50%
Rangers 3+ goals
24%
Aberdeen 1+ goals
71%
Aberdeen 2+ goals
36%
Aberdeen 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Rangers (draw refunded)
63%
Aberdeen (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rangers at home — creates 2.38, concedes 0.63 · 16 matches

Aberdeen away — creates 1.86, concedes 1.00 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rangers attack 2.38 + Aberdeen defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.69

Aberdeen attack 1.86 + Rangers defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Rangers scores more
48%
level
24%
Aberdeen scores more
28%

Rangers at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Rangers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Cup: Rangers 1–1 Aberdeen

Rangers and Aberdeen drew 1-1 in League Cup on January 15, 2023.

The match was played at Hampden Park in Glasgow.