Randers FC 1–0 Aalborg: Result & Stats | Superliga

Randers FC

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Aalborg

F. Bundgaard 3'

8/28/2022

Superliga · Round 7Cepheus Park Randers

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Randers FC52%

×Draw24%

Aalborg25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Randers FCExpected goals in this matchAalborg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.72

1.11

Randers FC

1.72

Aalborg

1.11

Randers FC creates 55% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 7 away

1.46

creates per match

0.94

1.29

allows per match

1.98

creates per match

Randers FC

1.46

Aalborg

0.94

allows per match

Randers FC

1.29

Aalborg

1.98

-0.20scores less than expected

finishing

-0.37scores less than expected

finishing

Randers FC-0.20scores less

Aalborg-0.37scores less

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Randers FC ↓

Aalborg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Randers FC or draw

75%

Randers FC or Aalborg

76%

Draw or Aalborg

48%

Winning margin

Randers FC wins by 2+

28%

Aalborg wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Randers FC 1+ goals

82%

Randers FC 2+ goals

51%

Randers FC 3+ goals

25%

Aalborg 1+ goals

67%

Aalborg 2+ goals

30%

Aalborg 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Randers FC (draw refunded)

68%

Aalborg (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Randers FC at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.29 · 23 matches

Aalborg away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.98 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Randers FC attack 1.46 + Aalborg defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.72

Aalborg attack 0.94 + Randers FC defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Randers FC scores more

52%

level

24%

Aalborg scores more

25%

Randers FC at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Randers FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

P. Carlgren

Randers FC · G

8.9

Match Events

3'

39'

42'

50'

63'

T. Klysner← J. Ankersen

63'

A. Kamara← S. Odey

67'

O. Ross← Allan Sousa

72'

J. Ahlmann← A. Poulsen

72'

A. Ementa← M. Makarić

73'

E. Babayan← F. Bundgaard

82'

K. Pallesen← K. Ludewig

82'

K. Kusk← L. Andersen

86'

O. Bundgaard← A. Andersson

87'

M. Pedersen← T. Kehinde

89'

Edgar Babayan

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RandersAalborg

Overview

40%Possession60%

11Total Shots18

5Corners6

11Fouls10

Shots

11Total Shots18

6On Target7

4Off Target7

1Blocked4

7Inside Box9

4Outside Box9

Passing

40%Possession60%

334Total Passes516

232Accurate Passes406

69%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

7Saves5

Discipline

11Fouls10

2Yellow Cards2

5Offsides1

Superliga: Randers FC 1–0 Aalborg

Randers FC beat Aalborg 1-0 in Superliga on August 28, 2022.

Goals: F. Bundgaard (3').

Aalborg controlled possession (60%) and registered 18 shots to 11.

The match was played at Cepheus Park Randers in Randers.

Randers FC vs Aalborg — Superliga 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Superliga: Randers FC 1–0 Aalborg