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Raków Częstochowa vs Zaglebie Lubin — Ekstraklasa 2018

Raków Częstochowa
Raków Częstochowa
FT
5 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Zaglebie Lubin
Zaglebie Lubin
11/5/2023EkstraklasaEkstraklasa · Round 14Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 18+ matches

Raków Częstochowa47%
×Draw25%
Zaglebie Lubin28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Raków Częstochowa
1.57
Zaglebie Lubin
1.14

Raków Częstochowa creates 38% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 19 away

creates per match

Raków Częstochowa
1.52
Zaglebie Lubin
1.14

allows per match

Raków Częstochowa
1.14
Zaglebie Lubin
1.62

finishing

Raków Częstochowa+0.04on par
Zaglebie Lubin-0.35scores less

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Raków Częstochowa ↓

Zaglebie Lubin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Raków Częstochowa or draw
72%
Raków Częstochowa or Zaglebie Lubin
75%
Draw or Zaglebie Lubin
53%

Winning margin

Raków Częstochowa wins by 2+
24%
Zaglebie Lubin wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Raków Częstochowa 1+ goals
79%
Raków Częstochowa 2+ goals
46%
Raków Częstochowa 3+ goals
21%
Zaglebie Lubin 1+ goals
68%
Zaglebie Lubin 2+ goals
32%
Zaglebie Lubin 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Raków Częstochowa (draw refunded)
63%
Zaglebie Lubin (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Raków Częstochowa at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.14 · 18 matches

Zaglebie Lubin away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.62 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Raków Częstochowa attack 1.52 + Zaglebie Lubin defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.57

Zaglebie Lubin attack 1.14 + Raków Częstochowa defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Raków Częstochowa scores more
47%
level
25%
Zaglebie Lubin scores more
28%

Raków Częstochowa at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Raków Częstochowa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ekstraklasa: Raków Częstochowa 5–0 Zaglebie Lubin

Raków Częstochowa beat Zaglebie Lubin 5-0 in Ekstraklasa on November 5, 2023.

The match was played at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków in Częstochowa.