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Raków Częstochowa vs Piast Gliwice — Ekstraklasa 2018

Raków Częstochowa
Raków Częstochowa
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Piast Gliwice
Piast Gliwice
2/17/2024EkstraklasaEkstraklasa · Round 21Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 15+ matches

Raków Częstochowa48%
×Draw25%
Piast Gliwice27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Raków Częstochowa
1.61
Piast Gliwice
1.13

Raków Częstochowa creates 42% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 15 away

creates per match

Raków Częstochowa
1.52
Piast Gliwice
1.12

allows per match

Raków Częstochowa
1.14
Piast Gliwice
1.70

finishing

Raków Częstochowa+0.04on par
Piast Gliwice+0.28scores more

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Raków Częstochowa ↓

Piast Gliwice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Raków Częstochowa or draw
73%
Raków Częstochowa or Piast Gliwice
75%
Draw or Piast Gliwice
52%

Winning margin

Raków Częstochowa wins by 2+
25%
Piast Gliwice wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Raków Częstochowa 1+ goals
80%
Raków Częstochowa 2+ goals
48%
Raków Częstochowa 3+ goals
22%
Piast Gliwice 1+ goals
68%
Piast Gliwice 2+ goals
31%
Piast Gliwice 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Raków Częstochowa (draw refunded)
64%
Piast Gliwice (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Raków Częstochowa at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.14 · 18 matches

Piast Gliwice away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.70 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Raków Częstochowa attack 1.52 + Piast Gliwice defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.61

Piast Gliwice attack 1.12 + Raków Częstochowa defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Raków Częstochowa scores more
48%
level
25%
Piast Gliwice scores more
27%

Raków Częstochowa at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Raków Częstochowa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Raków Częstochowa vs Piast Gliwice

Raków Częstochowa beat Piast Gliwice 3-1 in Ekstraklasa on February 17, 2024.

The match was played at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków in Częstochowa.