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Raków Częstochowa vs Korona Kielce — Ekstraklasa 2018

Raków Częstochowa
Raków Częstochowa
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Korona Kielce
Korona Kielce
12/17/2023EkstraklasaEkstraklasa · Round 19Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 16+ matches

Raków Częstochowa46%
×Draw25%
Korona Kielce29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Raków Częstochowa
1.58
Korona Kielce
1.19

Raków Częstochowa creates 33% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 16 away

creates per match

Raków Częstochowa
1.52
Korona Kielce
1.24

allows per match

Raków Częstochowa
1.14
Korona Kielce
1.64

finishing

Raków Częstochowa+0.04on par
Korona Kielce-0.36scores less

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Raków Częstochowa ↓

Korona Kielce →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Raków Częstochowa or draw
71%
Raków Częstochowa or Korona Kielce
75%
Draw or Korona Kielce
54%

Winning margin

Raków Częstochowa wins by 2+
24%
Korona Kielce wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Raków Częstochowa 1+ goals
79%
Raków Częstochowa 2+ goals
47%
Raków Częstochowa 3+ goals
21%
Korona Kielce 1+ goals
70%
Korona Kielce 2+ goals
33%
Korona Kielce 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Raków Częstochowa (draw refunded)
62%
Korona Kielce (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Raków Częstochowa at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.14 · 18 matches

Korona Kielce away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.64 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Raków Częstochowa attack 1.52 + Korona Kielce defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.58

Korona Kielce attack 1.24 + Raków Częstochowa defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Raków Częstochowa scores more
46%
level
25%
Korona Kielce scores more
29%

Raków Częstochowa at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Raków Częstochowa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ekstraklasa: Raków Częstochowa 1–0 Korona Kielce

Raków Częstochowa beat Korona Kielce 1-0 in Ekstraklasa on December 17, 2023.

The match was played at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków in Częstochowa.