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Raków Częstochowa vs Cracovia Krakow — Ekstraklasa 2018

Raków Częstochowa
Raków Częstochowa
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Cracovia Krakow
Cracovia Krakow
11/25/2023EkstraklasaEkstraklasa · Round 16Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 14+ matches

Raków Częstochowa50%
×Draw24%
Cracovia Krakow26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Raków Częstochowa
1.65
Cracovia Krakow
1.11

Raków Częstochowa creates 49% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 14 away

creates per match

Raków Częstochowa
1.52
Cracovia Krakow
1.08

allows per match

Raków Częstochowa
1.14
Cracovia Krakow
1.78

finishing

Raków Częstochowa+0.04on par
Cracovia Krakow-0.08on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Raków Częstochowa ↓

Cracovia Krakow →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Raków Częstochowa or draw
74%
Raków Częstochowa or Cracovia Krakow
76%
Draw or Cracovia Krakow
50%

Winning margin

Raków Częstochowa wins by 2+
26%
Cracovia Krakow wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Raków Częstochowa 1+ goals
81%
Raków Częstochowa 2+ goals
49%
Raków Częstochowa 3+ goals
23%
Cracovia Krakow 1+ goals
67%
Cracovia Krakow 2+ goals
30%
Cracovia Krakow 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Raków Częstochowa (draw refunded)
66%
Cracovia Krakow (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Raków Częstochowa at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.14 · 18 matches

Cracovia Krakow away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.78 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Raków Częstochowa attack 1.52 + Cracovia Krakow defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.65

Cracovia Krakow attack 1.08 + Raków Częstochowa defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Raków Częstochowa scores more
50%
level
24%
Cracovia Krakow scores more
26%

Raków Częstochowa at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Raków Częstochowa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ekstraklasa: Raków Częstochowa 1–1 Cracovia Krakow

Raków Częstochowa and Cracovia Krakow drew 1-1 in Ekstraklasa on November 25, 2023.

The match was played at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków in Częstochowa.