Raków Częstochowa 0–0 Cracovia Krakow

Raków Częstochowa

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Cracovia Krakow

3/6/2021

Ekstraklasa · Round 20Stadion GKS-u

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 24+ matches

Raków Częstochowa50%

×Draw25%

Cracovia Krakow25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Raków CzęstochowaExpected goals in this matchCracovia Krakow

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.09

Raków Częstochowa

1.65

Cracovia Krakow

1.09

Raków Częstochowa creates 51% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 24 away

1.58

creates per match

1.14

1.04

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Raków Częstochowa

1.58

Cracovia Krakow

1.14

allows per match

Raków Częstochowa

1.04

Cracovia Krakow

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

-0.01on par

finishing

Raków Częstochowa+0.00on par

Cracovia Krakow-0.01on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Raków Częstochowa ↓

Cracovia Krakow →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Raków Częstochowa or draw

75%

Raków Częstochowa or Cracovia Krakow

75%

Draw or Cracovia Krakow

50%

Winning margin

Raków Częstochowa wins by 2+

27%

Cracovia Krakow wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Raków Częstochowa 1+ goals

81%

Raków Częstochowa 2+ goals

49%

Raków Częstochowa 3+ goals

23%

Cracovia Krakow 1+ goals

66%

Cracovia Krakow 2+ goals

30%

Cracovia Krakow 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Raków Częstochowa (draw refunded)

67%

Cracovia Krakow (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Raków Częstochowa at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.04 · 26 matches

Cracovia Krakow away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.71 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Raków Częstochowa attack 1.58 + Cracovia Krakow defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.65

Cracovia Krakow attack 1.14 + Raków Częstochowa defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Raków Częstochowa scores more

50%

level

25%

Cracovia Krakow scores more

25%

Raków Częstochowa at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Raków Częstochowa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

42'

48'

50'

58'

63'

M. Cebula← D. Tijanič

74'

Zoran Arsenić

80'

P. Schwarz← M. Poletanović

83'

S. Strózik← J. Kosecki

83'

Thiago← M. Álvarez

86'

D. Szelągowski← Ivi López

87'

W. Długosz← V. Gutkovskis

88'

Matej Rodin

Possession

Shots

Statistics

RakówCracovia

Overview

45%Possession55%

7Total Shots8

4Corners1

16Fouls18

Shots

7Total Shots8

1On Target2

6Off Target6

Passing

45%Possession55%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

16Fouls18

3Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards0

2Offsides0