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Raja Casablanca vs Wydad AC — Botola Pro 2025

Raja Casablanca
Raja Casablanca
FT
0 – 1
Wydad AC
Wydad AC
1/6/2019Botola ProBotola Pro · Round 10Stade de Marrakech (Marrakech)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 114+ matches

Raja Casablanca44%
×Draw28%
Wydad AC28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Raja Casablanca
1.28
Wydad AC
0.95

Raja Casablanca creates 35% more chances

Season form · 117 home / 114 away

creates per match

Raja Casablanca
1.62
Wydad AC
1.27

allows per match

Raja Casablanca
0.62
Wydad AC
0.94

finishing

Raja Casablanca+0.00on par
Wydad AC+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Raja Casablanca ↓

Wydad AC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Raja Casablanca or draw
72%
Raja Casablanca or Wydad AC
72%
Draw or Wydad AC
56%

Winning margin

Raja Casablanca wins by 2+
20%
Wydad AC wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Raja Casablanca 1+ goals
72%
Raja Casablanca 2+ goals
37%
Raja Casablanca 3+ goals
14%
Wydad AC 1+ goals
61%
Wydad AC 2+ goals
25%
Wydad AC 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Raja Casablanca (draw refunded)
61%
Wydad AC (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Raja Casablanca at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.62 · 117 matches

Wydad AC away — creates 1.27, concedes 0.94 · 114 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Raja Casablanca attack 1.62 + Wydad AC defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.28

Wydad AC attack 1.27 + Raja Casablanca defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Raja Casablanca scores more
44%
level
28%
Wydad AC scores more
28%

Raja Casablanca at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Raja Casablanca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

78'
Ismail El Haddad
82'
Zakaria Hadraf
90'
Mohammed Nahiri

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Botola Pro: Raja Casablanca 0–1 Wydad AC

Wydad AC beat Raja Casablanca 1-0 in Botola Pro on January 6, 2019.

Goals: Ismail El Haddad (78').

The match was played at Stade de Marrakech (Marrakech).