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Raja Casablanca vs FUS Rabat — Botola Pro 2025

Raja Casablanca
Raja Casablanca
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
FUS Rabat
FUS Rabat
11/6/2023Botola ProBotola Pro · Round 8Stade Mohamed V

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 120+ matches

Raja Casablanca46%
×Draw29%
FUS Rabat25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Raja Casablanca
1.29
FUS Rabat
0.86

Raja Casablanca creates 50% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 120 away

creates per match

Raja Casablanca
1.57
FUS Rabat
1.09

allows per match

Raja Casablanca
0.64
FUS Rabat
1.02

finishing

Raja Casablanca+0.00on par
FUS Rabat+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Raja Casablanca ↓

FUS Rabat →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Raja Casablanca or draw
75%
Raja Casablanca or FUS Rabat
71%
Draw or FUS Rabat
54%

Winning margin

Raja Casablanca wins by 2+
21%
FUS Rabat wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Raja Casablanca 1+ goals
72%
Raja Casablanca 2+ goals
37%
Raja Casablanca 3+ goals
14%
FUS Rabat 1+ goals
58%
FUS Rabat 2+ goals
21%
FUS Rabat 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Raja Casablanca (draw refunded)
65%
FUS Rabat (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Raja Casablanca at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.64 · 120 matches

FUS Rabat away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.02 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Raja Casablanca attack 1.57 + FUS Rabat defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.29

FUS Rabat attack 1.09 + Raja Casablanca defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Raja Casablanca scores more
46%
level
29%
FUS Rabat scores more
25%

Raja Casablanca at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Raja Casablanca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Botola Pro: Raja Casablanca 2–0 FUS Rabat

Raja Casablanca beat FUS Rabat 2-0 in Botola Pro on November 6, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Mohamed V in Casablanca.