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Raja Beni Mellal vs Rapide Oued ZEM — Botola Pro 2025

Raja Beni Mellal
Raja Beni Mellal
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Rapide Oued ZEM
Rapide Oued ZEM
3/9/2020Botola ProBotola Pro · Round 20Stade Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Raja Beni Mellal30%
×Draw31%
Rapide Oued ZEM38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Raja Beni Mellal
0.90
Rapide Oued ZEM
1.05

Rapide Oued ZEM creates 17% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 60 away

creates per match

Raja Beni Mellal
0.56
Rapide Oued ZEM
0.72

allows per match

Raja Beni Mellal
1.38
Rapide Oued ZEM
1.23

finishing

Raja Beni Mellal+0.00on par
Rapide Oued ZEM+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Raja Beni Mellal ↓

Rapide Oued ZEM →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–115%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Raja Beni Mellal or draw
62%
Raja Beni Mellal or Rapide Oued ZEM
69%
Draw or Rapide Oued ZEM
70%

Winning margin

Raja Beni Mellal wins by 2+
11%
Rapide Oued ZEM wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Raja Beni Mellal 1+ goals
59%
Raja Beni Mellal 2+ goals
23%
Raja Beni Mellal 3+ goals
6%
Rapide Oued ZEM 1+ goals
65%
Rapide Oued ZEM 2+ goals
28%
Rapide Oued ZEM 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Raja Beni Mellal (draw refunded)
44%
Rapide Oued ZEM (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Raja Beni Mellal at home — creates 0.56, concedes 1.38 · 16 matches

Rapide Oued ZEM away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.23 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Raja Beni Mellal attack 0.56 + Rapide Oued ZEM defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 0.90

Rapide Oued ZEM attack 0.72 + Raja Beni Mellal defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Raja Beni Mellal scores more
30%
level
31%
Rapide Oued ZEM scores more
38%

Rapide Oued ZEM at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Rapide Oued ZEM will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Raja Beni Mellal vs Rapide Oued ZEM

Raja Beni Mellal beat Rapide Oued ZEM 1-0 in Botola Pro on March 9, 2020.

The match was played at Stade Municipal in Oued Zem.