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Raja Beni Mellal vs Ittihad Khemisset — Botola 2 2025

Raja Beni Mellal
Raja Beni Mellal
FT
1 – 5
Ittihad Khemisset
Ittihad Khemisset
10/21/2018Botola 2Botola 2 · Round 6Stade Municipal de Beni Mellal (Beni Mellal)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Raja Beni Mellal42%
×Draw29%
Ittihad Khemisset29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Raja Beni Mellal
1.20
Ittihad Khemisset
0.94

Raja Beni Mellal creates 28% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 75 away

creates per match

Raja Beni Mellal
1.13
Ittihad Khemisset
1.03

allows per match

Raja Beni Mellal
0.84
Ittihad Khemisset
1.27

finishing

Raja Beni Mellal+0.00on par
Ittihad Khemisset+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Raja Beni Mellal ↓

Ittihad Khemisset →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Raja Beni Mellal or draw
71%
Raja Beni Mellal or Ittihad Khemisset
71%
Draw or Ittihad Khemisset
58%

Winning margin

Raja Beni Mellal wins by 2+
18%
Ittihad Khemisset wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Raja Beni Mellal 1+ goals
70%
Raja Beni Mellal 2+ goals
34%
Raja Beni Mellal 3+ goals
12%
Ittihad Khemisset 1+ goals
61%
Ittihad Khemisset 2+ goals
24%
Ittihad Khemisset 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Raja Beni Mellal (draw refunded)
59%
Ittihad Khemisset (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Raja Beni Mellal at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.84 · 105 matches

Ittihad Khemisset away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.27 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Raja Beni Mellal attack 1.13 + Ittihad Khemisset defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.20

Ittihad Khemisset attack 1.03 + Raja Beni Mellal defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Raja Beni Mellal scores more
42%
level
29%
Ittihad Khemisset scores more
29%

Raja Beni Mellal at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Raja Beni Mellal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Botola 2: Raja Beni Mellal 1–5 Ittihad Khemisset

Ittihad Khemisset beat Raja Beni Mellal 5-1 in Botola 2 on October 21, 2018.

The match was played at Stade Municipal de Beni Mellal (Beni Mellal).