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Rahmatgonj MFS vs Mohammedan Dhaka — Premier League 2019

Rahmatgonj MFS
Rahmatgonj MFS
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Mohammedan Dhaka
Mohammedan Dhaka
2/9/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 7Shaheed Bir Sreshtho Flight Lieutenant Matiur Rahman Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Rahmatgonj MFS31%
×Draw25%
Mohammedan Dhaka44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rahmatgonj MFS
1.21
Mohammedan Dhaka
1.50

Mohammedan Dhaka creates 24% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 77 away

creates per match

Rahmatgonj MFS
1.29
Mohammedan Dhaka
1.57

allows per match

Rahmatgonj MFS
1.43
Mohammedan Dhaka
1.13

finishing

Rahmatgonj MFS+0.00on par
Mohammedan Dhaka+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rahmatgonj MFS ↓

Mohammedan Dhaka →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Rahmatgonj MFS or draw
56%
Rahmatgonj MFS or Mohammedan Dhaka
75%
Draw or Mohammedan Dhaka
69%

Winning margin

Rahmatgonj MFS wins by 2+
13%
Mohammedan Dhaka wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Rahmatgonj MFS 1+ goals
70%
Rahmatgonj MFS 2+ goals
34%
Rahmatgonj MFS 3+ goals
12%
Mohammedan Dhaka 1+ goals
78%
Mohammedan Dhaka 2+ goals
44%
Mohammedan Dhaka 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Rahmatgonj MFS (draw refunded)
41%
Mohammedan Dhaka (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rahmatgonj MFS at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.43 · 75 matches

Mohammedan Dhaka away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.13 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rahmatgonj MFS attack 1.29 + Mohammedan Dhaka defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.21

Mohammedan Dhaka attack 1.57 + Rahmatgonj MFS defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Rahmatgonj MFS scores more
31%
level
25%
Mohammedan Dhaka scores more
44%

Mohammedan Dhaka at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Mohammedan Dhaka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rahmatgonj MFS vs Mohammedan Dhaka

Rahmatgonj MFS and Mohammedan Dhaka drew 1-1 in Premier League on February 9, 2024.

The match was played at Shaheed Bir Sreshtho Flight Lieutenant Matiur Rahman Stadium in Munshiganj.