Radomlje 2–2 Maribor: Result & Stats | 1. SNL

Radomlje

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Maribor

12/11/2023

1. SNL · Round 19Športni Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 89+ matches

Radomlje28%

×Draw25%

Maribor47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RadomljeExpected goals in this matchMaribor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

1.58

Radomlje

1.18

Maribor

1.58

Maribor creates 34% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 125 away

1.17

creates per match

1.53

1.62

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

Radomlje

1.17

Maribor

1.53

allows per match

Radomlje

1.62

Maribor

1.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Radomlje+0.00on par

Maribor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radomlje ↓

Maribor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Radomlje or draw

53%

Radomlje or Maribor

75%

Draw or Maribor

72%

Winning margin

Radomlje wins by 2+

12%

Maribor wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Radomlje 1+ goals

69%

Radomlje 2+ goals

33%

Radomlje 3+ goals

12%

Maribor 1+ goals

79%

Maribor 2+ goals

47%

Maribor 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Radomlje (draw refunded)

38%

Maribor (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radomlje at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.62 · 89 matches

Maribor away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.19 · 125 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radomlje attack 1.17 + Maribor defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.18

Maribor attack 1.53 + Radomlje defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Radomlje scores more

28%

level

25%

Maribor scores more

47%

Maribor at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Maribor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff