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Radomiak Radom vs Legia Warszawa — Ekstraklasa 2018

Radomiak Radom
Radomiak Radom
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Legia Warszawa
Legia Warszawa
11/5/2023EkstraklasaEkstraklasa · Round 14Stadion Radomiaka Radom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Radomiak Radom46%
×Draw24%
Legia Warszawa30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Radomiak Radom
1.65
Legia Warszawa
1.28

Radomiak Radom creates 29% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 21 away

creates per match

Radomiak Radom
1.66
Legia Warszawa
1.71

allows per match

Radomiak Radom
0.86
Legia Warszawa
1.65

finishing

Radomiak Radom+0.34scores more
Legia Warszawa-0.14scores less

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radomiak Radom ↓

Legia Warszawa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Radomiak Radom or draw
70%
Radomiak Radom or Legia Warszawa
76%
Draw or Legia Warszawa
54%

Winning margin

Radomiak Radom wins by 2+
24%
Legia Warszawa wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Radomiak Radom 1+ goals
81%
Radomiak Radom 2+ goals
49%
Radomiak Radom 3+ goals
23%
Legia Warszawa 1+ goals
72%
Legia Warszawa 2+ goals
37%
Legia Warszawa 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Radomiak Radom (draw refunded)
61%
Legia Warszawa (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radomiak Radom at home — creates 1.66, concedes 0.86 · 13 matches

Legia Warszawa away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.65 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radomiak Radom attack 1.66 + Legia Warszawa defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.65

Legia Warszawa attack 1.71 + Radomiak Radom defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Radomiak Radom scores more
46%
level
24%
Legia Warszawa scores more
30%

Radomiak Radom at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Radomiak Radom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Radomiak Radom vs Legia Warszawa

Legia Warszawa beat Radomiak Radom 1-0 in Ekstraklasa on November 5, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Radomiaka Radom in Radom.