Radnik Surdulica vs Mladost Lucani

Radnik Surdulica

Preview

17:00

Mladost Lucani

7/19/2026

Super Liga · Round 1EFBET Stadion

Big match

45%

Radnik Surdulica

model favours

45%27%28%

Mladost Lucani are unbeaten in 11 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

58%

under 2.5 goals

47%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 127+ matches

Radnik Surdulica45%

×Draw27%

Mladost Lucani28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Radnik SurdulicaExpected goals in this matchMladost Lucani

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.01

Radnik Surdulica

1.35

Mladost Lucani

1.01

Radnik Surdulica creates 34% more chances

Season form · 127 home / 147 away

1.14

creates per match

0.86

1.17

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Radnik Surdulica

1.14

Mladost Lucani

0.86

allows per match

Radnik Surdulica

1.17

Mladost Lucani

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Radnik Surdulica+0.00on par

Mladost Lucani+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radnik Surdulica ↓

Mladost Lucani →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Radnik Surdulica or draw

72%

Radnik Surdulica or Mladost Lucani

73%

Draw or Mladost Lucani

55%

Winning margin

Radnik Surdulica wins by 2+

21%

Mladost Lucani wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Radnik Surdulica 1+ goals

74%

Radnik Surdulica 2+ goals

39%

Radnik Surdulica 3+ goals

15%

Mladost Lucani 1+ goals

64%

Mladost Lucani 2+ goals

27%

Mladost Lucani 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Radnik Surdulica (draw refunded)

61%

Mladost Lucani (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radnik Surdulica at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.17 · 127 matches

Mladost Lucani away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.57 · 147 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radnik Surdulica attack 1.14 + Mladost Lucani defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.35

Mladost Lucani attack 0.86 + Radnik Surdulica defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Radnik Surdulica scores more

45%

level

27%

Mladost Lucani scores more

28%

Radnik Surdulica at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Radnik Surdulica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Radnik Surdulica score first in only 20% of matches
Mladost Lucani have won 4 in a row
70% of Radnik Surdulica’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
Both teams score in only 27% of Mladost Lucani’s matches
Mladost Lucani score first in 64% of matches
Radnik Surdulica win just 24% against the top half (vs 53% against the bottom)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles

Radnik Surdulica

Direct / counter-attacking

Mladost Lucani

Direct / counter-attacking

45%Possession42%

71%Pass accuracy75%

9.8Shots9.1

1.41xGBiggest gap1.81

Radnik SurdulicaMladost Lucani

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

3

Radnik Surdulica

3

Draws

4

Mladost Lucani

Avg goals: 2BTTS: 30%

0–00–11–10–00–2

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form

Surdulica

WWLL

Lucani

WWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff