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Radnik Hadžići vs Rudar Kakanj — 1st League - FBiH 2019

Radnik Hadžići
Radnik Hadžići
FT
1 – 4
Rudar Kakanj
Rudar Kakanj
8/25/20191st League - FBiH1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 3Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Radnik Hadžići46%
×Draw27%
Rudar Kakanj26%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Radnik Hadžići
1.37
Rudar Kakanj
0.96

Radnik Hadžići creates 43% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 69 away

creates per match

Radnik Hadžići
1.16
Rudar Kakanj
0.97

allows per match

Radnik Hadžići
0.96
Rudar Kakanj
1.58

finishing

Radnik Hadžići+0.00on par
Rudar Kakanj+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radnik Hadžići ↓

Rudar Kakanj →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Radnik Hadžići or draw
74%
Radnik Hadžići or Rudar Kakanj
73%
Draw or Rudar Kakanj
54%

Winning margin

Radnik Hadžići wins by 2+
22%
Rudar Kakanj wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Radnik Hadžići 1+ goals
75%
Radnik Hadžići 2+ goals
40%
Radnik Hadžići 3+ goals
16%
Rudar Kakanj 1+ goals
62%
Rudar Kakanj 2+ goals
25%
Rudar Kakanj 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Radnik Hadžići (draw refunded)
64%
Rudar Kakanj (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radnik Hadžići at home — creates 1.16, concedes 0.96 · 96 matches

Rudar Kakanj away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.58 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radnik Hadžići attack 1.16 + Rudar Kakanj defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.37

Rudar Kakanj attack 0.97 + Radnik Hadžići defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Radnik Hadžići scores more
46%
level
27%
Rudar Kakanj scores more
26%

Radnik Hadžići at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Radnik Hadžići will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Radnik Hadžići vs Rudar Kakanj

Rudar Kakanj beat Radnik Hadžići 4-1 in 1st League - FBiH on August 25, 2019.

The match was played at Gradski stadion in Hadžići.