Radnik Bijeljina 0–1 Borac Banja Luka

Radnik Bijeljina

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Borac Banja Luka

E. Kulašin 87'

3/1/2025

Premijer Liga · Round 20Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Radnik Bijeljina35%

×Draw29%

Borac Banja Luka37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Radnik BijeljinaExpected goals in this matchBorac Banja Luka

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.12

1.16

Radnik Bijeljina

1.12

Borac Banja Luka

1.16

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 73 home / 109 away

1.26

creates per match

1.30

1.01

allows per match

0.98

creates per match

Radnik Bijeljina

1.26

Borac Banja Luka

1.30

allows per match

Radnik Bijeljina

1.01

Borac Banja Luka

0.98

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Radnik Bijeljina+0.00on par

Borac Banja Luka+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radnik Bijeljina ↓

Borac Banja Luka →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Radnik Bijeljina or draw

63%

Radnik Bijeljina or Borac Banja Luka

71%

Draw or Borac Banja Luka

65%

Winning margin

Radnik Bijeljina wins by 2+

14%

Borac Banja Luka wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Radnik Bijeljina 1+ goals

67%

Radnik Bijeljina 2+ goals

31%

Radnik Bijeljina 3+ goals

10%

Borac Banja Luka 1+ goals

69%

Borac Banja Luka 2+ goals

32%

Borac Banja Luka 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Radnik Bijeljina (draw refunded)

49%

Borac Banja Luka (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radnik Bijeljina at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.01 · 73 matches

Borac Banja Luka away — creates 1.30, concedes 0.98 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radnik Bijeljina attack 1.26 + Borac Banja Luka defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.12

Borac Banja Luka attack 1.30 + Radnik Bijeljina defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Radnik Bijeljina scores more

35%

level

29%

Borac Banja Luka scores more

37%

Borac Banja Luka at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Borac Banja Luka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

35'

M. Perisic

44'

S. Santrac

48'

D. Krajisnik

64'

S. Vranješ← B. Nikolov

78'

A. Vasić← M. Albijanić

80'

D. Čavić← S. Savić

85'

Nathan← E. Sivac

85'

87'

88'

90'

Radnik

Borac

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: V. Đurić

78'▲A. Vasić←▼M. Albijanić

85'▲Nathan←▼E. Sivac

85'▲Ž. Flis←▼M. Perišić

Radnik Bijeljina substitutes

VasićNathanFlis

Manager: M. Žižović

64'▲S. Vranješ←▼B. Nikolov

80'▲D. Čavić←▼S. Savić

88'▲A. Hiroš←▼D. Vuković

Borac Banja Luka substitutes

VranješČavićHiroš

Premijer Liga: Radnik Bijeljina 0–1 Borac Banja Luka

Borac Banja Luka beat Radnik Bijeljina 1-0 in Premijer Liga on March 1, 2025.

Goals: E. Kulašin (87').

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Bijeljina.

Radnik Bijeljina vs Borac Banja Luka — Premijer Liga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Premijer Liga: Radnik Bijeljina 0–1 Borac Banja Luka