Radnički Obrenovac 4–2 Brodarac: Result & Stats

Radnički Obrenovac

FT

4 – 2

Brodarac

11/12/2023

Srpska Liga - Belgrade · Belgrade - 14Stadion Pored Kolubare

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 98+ matches

Radnički Obrenovac50%

×Draw24%

Brodarac26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Radnički ObrenovacExpected goals in this matchBrodarac

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.11

Radnički Obrenovac

1.65

Brodarac

1.11

Radnički Obrenovac creates 49% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 98 away

1.90

creates per match

1.22

1.00

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Radnički Obrenovac

1.90

Brodarac

1.22

allows per match

Radnički Obrenovac

1.00

Brodarac

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Radnički Obrenovac+0.00on par

Brodarac+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radnički Obrenovac ↓

Brodarac →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Radnički Obrenovac or draw

74%

Radnički Obrenovac or Brodarac

76%

Draw or Brodarac

50%

Winning margin

Radnički Obrenovac wins by 2+

26%

Brodarac wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Radnički Obrenovac 1+ goals

81%

Radnički Obrenovac 2+ goals

49%

Radnički Obrenovac 3+ goals

23%

Brodarac 1+ goals

67%

Brodarac 2+ goals

30%

Brodarac 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Radnički Obrenovac (draw refunded)

66%

Brodarac (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radnički Obrenovac at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.00 · 98 matches

Brodarac away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.41 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radnički Obrenovac attack 1.90 + Brodarac defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.65

Brodarac attack 1.22 + Radnički Obrenovac defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Radnički Obrenovac scores more

50%

level

24%

Brodarac scores more

26%

Radnički Obrenovac at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Radnički Obrenovac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff