Radès 2–1 Kalaâ Sport: Result & Stats | Ligue 2

Radès

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Kalaâ Sport

2/5/2022

Ligue 2 · Round 5Stade de Rades

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Radès43%

×Draw28%

Kalaâ Sport28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RadèsExpected goals in this matchKalaâ Sport

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

0.96

Radès

1.27

Kalaâ Sport

0.96

Radès creates 32% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 61 away

1.04

creates per match

0.70

1.23

allows per match

1.51

creates per match

Radès

1.04

Kalaâ Sport

0.70

allows per match

Radès

1.23

Kalaâ Sport

1.51

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Radès+0.00on par

Kalaâ Sport+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radès ↓

Kalaâ Sport →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Radès or draw

72%

Radès or Kalaâ Sport

72%

Draw or Kalaâ Sport

57%

Winning margin

Radès wins by 2+

20%

Kalaâ Sport wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Radès 1+ goals

72%

Radès 2+ goals

36%

Radès 3+ goals

14%

Kalaâ Sport 1+ goals

62%

Kalaâ Sport 2+ goals

25%

Kalaâ Sport 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Radès (draw refunded)

61%

Kalaâ Sport (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radès at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.23 · 47 matches

Kalaâ Sport away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.51 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radès attack 1.04 + Kalaâ Sport defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.27

Kalaâ Sport attack 0.70 + Radès defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Radès scores more

43%

level

28%

Kalaâ Sport scores more

28%

Radès at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Radès will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff