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Radès vs Jendouba Sport — Ligue 2 2020

Radès
Radès
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Jendouba Sport
Jendouba Sport
I. Khelifa 79'
11/5/2022Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 3Stade de Rades

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Radès36%
×Draw30%
Jendouba Sport34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Radès
1.07
Jendouba Sport
1.04

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 47 home / 59 away

creates per match

Radès
1.04
Jendouba Sport
0.86

allows per match

Radès
1.23
Jendouba Sport
1.10

finishing

Radès+0.00on par
Jendouba Sport+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radès ↓

Jendouba Sport →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–113%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Radès or draw
66%
Radès or Jendouba Sport
70%
Draw or Jendouba Sport
64%

Winning margin

Radès wins by 2+
14%
Jendouba Sport wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Radès 1+ goals
66%
Radès 2+ goals
29%
Radès 3+ goals
9%
Jendouba Sport 1+ goals
65%
Jendouba Sport 2+ goals
28%
Jendouba Sport 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Radès (draw refunded)
51%
Jendouba Sport (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radès at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.23 · 47 matches

Jendouba Sport away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.10 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radès attack 1.04 + Jendouba Sport defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.07

Jendouba Sport attack 0.86 + Radès defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Radès scores more
36%
level
30%
Jendouba Sport scores more
34%

Radès at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Radès will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

79'
I. Khelifa

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 2: Radès 1–0 Jendouba Sport

Radès beat Jendouba Sport 1-0 in Ligue 2 on November 5, 2022.

Goals: I. Khelifa (79').

The match was played at Stade de Rades in Rades.