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Radcliffe vs Oxford City — League #50 2026

Radcliffe
Radcliffe
Preview
14:00
Oxford City
Oxford City
9/12/2026League #50League #50 · National League North - 9
43%
Radcliffe
model favours
43%21%36%

70% of Radcliffe’s matches stay under 2.5 goals

brightest fact of this match

2–1
likely score
76%
over 2.5 goals
75%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Radcliffe43%
×Draw21%
Oxford City36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Radcliffe
2.10
Oxford City
1.90

Radcliffe creates 11% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

creates per match

Radcliffe
2.20
Oxford City
2.00

allows per match

Radcliffe
1.80
Oxford City
2.00

finishing

Radcliffe+0.00on par
Oxford City+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radcliffe ↓

Oxford City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Radcliffe or draw
64%
Radcliffe or Oxford City
79%
Draw or Oxford City
57%

Winning margin

Radcliffe wins by 2+
24%
Oxford City wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Radcliffe 1+ goals
88%
Radcliffe 2+ goals
62%
Radcliffe 3+ goals
35%
Oxford City 1+ goals
85%
Oxford City 2+ goals
56%
Oxford City 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Radcliffe (draw refunded)
55%
Oxford City (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radcliffe at home — creates 2.20, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

Oxford City away — creates 2.00, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radcliffe attack 2.20 + Oxford City defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.10

Oxford City attack 2.00 + Radcliffe defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Radcliffe scores more
43%
level
21%
Oxford City scores more
36%

Radcliffe at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Radcliffe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Radcliffe sit 23, Oxford City 8 in the table
  • Radcliffe and Oxford City have never met before

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Radcliffe
DDLWL
City
WWWLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Radcliffe host Oxford City

September 12, 2026: Radcliffe take on Oxford City in League #50. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.