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RAD vs Indjija — Super Liga 2018

RAD
RAD
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Indjija
Indjija
10/4/2020Super LigaSuper Liga · Round 10Stadion Kralj Petar Prvi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

RAD49%
×Draw26%
Indjija25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

RAD
1.53
Indjija
1.02

RAD creates 50% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 36 away

creates per match

RAD
1.15
Indjija
0.64

allows per match

RAD
1.40
Indjija
1.92

finishing

RAD+0.00on par
Indjija+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RAD ↓

Indjija →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

RAD or draw
75%
RAD or Indjija
74%
Draw or Indjija
51%

Winning margin

RAD wins by 2+
25%
Indjija wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

RAD 1+ goals
78%
RAD 2+ goals
45%
RAD 3+ goals
20%
Indjija 1+ goals
64%
Indjija 2+ goals
27%
Indjija 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

RAD (draw refunded)
66%
Indjija (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RAD at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.40 · 52 matches

Indjija away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.92 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RAD attack 1.15 + Indjija defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.53

Indjija attack 0.64 + RAD defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

RAD scores more
49%
level
26%
Indjija scores more
25%

RAD at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "RAD will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

RAD 2 – 1 Indjija

RAD beat Indjija 2-1 in Super Liga on October 4, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Kralj Petar Prvi in Beograd.