Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Racing Montevideo vs Penarol — Primera División - Apertura 2026

Racing Montevideo
Racing Montevideo
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Penarol
Penarol
3/15/2024Primera División - AperturaPrimera División - Apertura · Apertura - 5Parque Alfredo Víctor Viera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Racing Montevideo29%
×Draw28%
Penarol43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Racing Montevideo
1.02
Penarol
1.29

Penarol creates 26% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 80 away

creates per match

Racing Montevideo
1.25
Penarol
1.40

allows per match

Racing Montevideo
1.19
Penarol
0.79

finishing

Racing Montevideo+0.00on par
Penarol+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Racing Montevideo ↓

Penarol →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–113%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Racing Montevideo or draw
57%
Racing Montevideo or Penarol
72%
Draw or Penarol
71%

Winning margin

Racing Montevideo wins by 2+
11%
Penarol wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Racing Montevideo 1+ goals
64%
Racing Montevideo 2+ goals
27%
Racing Montevideo 3+ goals
8%
Penarol 1+ goals
72%
Penarol 2+ goals
37%
Penarol 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Racing Montevideo (draw refunded)
41%
Penarol (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Racing Montevideo at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.19 · 59 matches

Penarol away — creates 1.40, concedes 0.79 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Racing Montevideo attack 1.25 + Penarol defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 1.02

Penarol attack 1.40 + Racing Montevideo defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Racing Montevideo scores more
29%
level
28%
Penarol scores more
43%

Penarol at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Penarol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Racing Montevideo vs Penarol

Penarol beat Racing Montevideo 2-1 in Primera División - Apertura on March 15, 2024.

The match was played at Parque Alfredo Víctor Viera in Montevideo.