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Racing Louisville W vs San Diego Wave W — NWSL Women 2026

Racing Louisville W
Racing Louisville W
Preview
22:30
San Diego Wave W
San Diego Wave W
9/25/2026NWSL WomenNWSL Women · Group StageLynn Family Stadium
Big match
39%
San Diego Wave W
model favours
33%27%39%

Racing Louisville W score first in only 9% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
56%
under 2.5 goals
50%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Racing Louisville W33%
×Draw27%
San Diego Wave W39%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Racing Louisville W
1.16
San Diego Wave W
1.29

San Diego Wave W creates 11% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 57 away

creates per match

Racing Louisville W
1.25
San Diego Wave W
1.28

allows per match

Racing Louisville W
1.30
San Diego Wave W
1.07

finishing

Racing Louisville W+0.00on par
San Diego Wave W+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Racing Louisville W ↓

San Diego Wave W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Racing Louisville W or draw
61%
Racing Louisville W or San Diego Wave W
73%
Draw or San Diego Wave W
67%

Winning margin

Racing Louisville W wins by 2+
14%
San Diego Wave W wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Racing Louisville W 1+ goals
69%
Racing Louisville W 2+ goals
32%
Racing Louisville W 3+ goals
11%
San Diego Wave W 1+ goals
72%
San Diego Wave W 2+ goals
37%
San Diego Wave W 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Racing Louisville W (draw refunded)
46%
San Diego Wave W (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Racing Louisville W at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.30 · 67 matches

San Diego Wave W away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.07 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Racing Louisville W attack 1.25 + San Diego Wave W defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.16

San Diego Wave W attack 1.28 + Racing Louisville W defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Racing Louisville W scores more
33%
level
27%
San Diego Wave W scores more
39%

San Diego Wave W at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "San Diego Wave W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Racing Louisville W fall short of their xG (1.4 vs 1.8 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Racing Louisville W
Direct / counter-attacking
San Diego Wave W
Balanced
44%PossessionBiggest gap56%
74%Pass accuracy81%
13.0Shots10.7
1.80xG—
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Racing Louisville WSan Diego Wave W

Head-to-head

8 previous meetings

2
Racing Louisville W
3
Draws
3
San Diego Wave W
Avg goals: 1.6BTTS: 25%
1–01–41–30–00–2

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
W
DLLWW
W
DLWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Racing Louisville W vs San Diego Wave W — Match Preview

Racing Louisville W face San Diego Wave W on September 25, 2026 in this NWSL Women fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Racing Louisville W host San Diego Wave W at Lynn Family Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.