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Racing Louisville W vs Orlando Pride W — NWSL Women 2026

Racing Louisville W
Racing Louisville W
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Orlando Pride W
Orlando Pride W
3/16/2024NWSL WomenNWSL Women · Round 1Lynn Family Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Racing Louisville W42%
×Draw26%
Orlando Pride W32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Racing Louisville W
1.40
Orlando Pride W
1.20

Racing Louisville W creates 17% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 81 away

creates per match

Racing Louisville W
1.26
Orlando Pride W
1.10

allows per match

Racing Louisville W
1.30
Orlando Pride W
1.54

finishing

Racing Louisville W+0.00on par
Orlando Pride W+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Racing Louisville W ↓

Orlando Pride W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Racing Louisville W or draw
68%
Racing Louisville W or Orlando Pride W
74%
Draw or Orlando Pride W
58%

Winning margin

Racing Louisville W wins by 2+
20%
Orlando Pride W wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Racing Louisville W 1+ goals
75%
Racing Louisville W 2+ goals
41%
Racing Louisville W 3+ goals
17%
Orlando Pride W 1+ goals
70%
Orlando Pride W 2+ goals
34%
Orlando Pride W 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Racing Louisville W (draw refunded)
56%
Orlando Pride W (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Racing Louisville W at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.30 · 66 matches

Orlando Pride W away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.54 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Racing Louisville W attack 1.26 + Orlando Pride W defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.40

Orlando Pride W attack 1.10 + Racing Louisville W defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Racing Louisville W scores more
42%
level
26%
Orlando Pride W scores more
32%

Racing Louisville W at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Racing Louisville W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NWSL Women: Racing Louisville W 2–2 Orlando Pride W

Racing Louisville W and Orlando Pride W drew 2-2 in NWSL Women on March 16, 2024.

The match was played at Lynn Family Stadium in Louisville, Kentucky.