Racing Louisville W 2–3 Angel City: Result & Stats

Racing Louisville W

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Angel City

N. Nadim 65' (pen)

G. Bonner 29'

S. McCaskill 90+3' (pen), 47'

C. Press 36'

6/12/2022

NWSL Women · Round 6Lynn Family Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Racing Louisville W39%

×Draw27%

Angel City34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Racing Louisville WExpected goals in this matchAngel City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.23

Racing Louisville W

1.33

Angel City

1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 67 home / 55 away

1.25

creates per match

1.15

1.30

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Racing Louisville W

1.25

Angel City

1.15

allows per match

Racing Louisville W

1.30

Angel City

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Racing Louisville W+0.00on par

Angel City+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Racing Louisville W ↓

Angel City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Racing Louisville W or draw

66%

Racing Louisville W or Angel City

73%

Draw or Angel City

61%

Winning margin

Racing Louisville W wins by 2+

18%

Angel City wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Racing Louisville W 1+ goals

74%

Racing Louisville W 2+ goals

38%

Racing Louisville W 3+ goals

15%

Angel City 1+ goals

71%

Angel City 2+ goals

35%

Angel City 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Racing Louisville W (draw refunded)

53%

Angel City (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Racing Louisville W at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.30 · 67 matches

Angel City away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.42 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Racing Louisville W attack 1.25 + Angel City defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.33

Angel City attack 1.15 + Racing Louisville W defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Racing Louisville W scores more

39%

level

27%

Angel City scores more

34%

Racing Louisville W at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Racing Louisville W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'

P. Nielsen

24'

G. Bonner

29'

G. Bonner↳ S. DeMelo

36'

C. Press↳ M. Reid

46'

M. Hammond← P. Nielsen

46'

S. Charley← M. Taylor

47'

S. McCaskill↳ C. Press

49'

S. McCaskill

51'

E. Ekic← A. Chidiac

61'

N. Nadim← F. Olofsson

65'

N. NadimPenalty

66'

C. Le Bihan← C. Press

68'

74'

85'

90+2'

90'

90+9'

L. Nabet← S. McCaskill

90+3'

S. McCaskillPenalty

Racing

Angel

13

Haračić

5

Riley

14

▼

Nielsen

2

A

Reid

8

Roccaro

17

Weatherho

35

▼

Taylor

9

⚽2

▼

McCaskill

23

⚽A

▼

Press

18

▼

Endo

20

Lussi

1

Lund

4

⚽

11

15

17

27

▼

Chidiac

8

▼

Olofsson

6

Howell

7

A

DeMelo

2

Milliet

14

McDonald

Manager: M. Sánchez

51'▲E. Ekic←▼A. Chidiac

61'▲N. Nadim←▼F. Olofsson

Racing Louisville W substitutes

13Ekic10Nadim44Murray19Otto18Beall25Holloway9Salmon22Davis21Goins

Manager: F. Coombe

46'▲M. Hammond←▼P. Nielsen

46'▲S. Charley←▼M. Taylor

66'▲C. Le Bihan←▼C. Press

90'▲H. Breslin←▼J. Endo

90+9'▲L. Nabet←▼S. McCaskill

Angel City substitutes

99Hammond7Charley29Bihan26Breslin28Nabet21Ferrer24Pérez19Cousins25Swaby

NWSL Women: Racing Louisville W 2–3 Angel City

Angel City beat Racing Louisville W 3-2 in NWSL Women on June 12, 2022.

Goals: G. Bonner (29'), C. Press (36'), S. McCaskill (47', 90+3' pen), N. Nadim (65' pen).

The match was played at Lynn Family Stadium in Louisville, Kentucky.

Racing Louisville W vs Angel City — NWSL Women 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

NWSL Women: Racing Louisville W 2–3 Angel City