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Racing Ferrol vs Unionistas de Salamanca — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Racing Ferrol
Racing Ferrol
Preview
15:00
Unionistas de Salamanca
Unionistas de Salamanca
10/18/2026Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 8Estadio Municipal da Malata
Big match
46%
Racing Ferrol
model favours
46%28%26%
1–0
likely score
60%
under 2.5 goals
45%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 82+ matches

Racing Ferrol46%
×Draw28%
Unionistas de Salamanca26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Racing Ferrol
1.34
Unionistas de Salamanca
0.93

Racing Ferrol creates 44% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 106 away

creates per match

Racing Ferrol
1.41
Unionistas de Salamanca
0.91

allows per match

Racing Ferrol
0.94
Unionistas de Salamanca
1.27

finishing

Racing Ferrol+0.00on par
Unionistas de Salamanca+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Racing Ferrol ↓

Unionistas de Salamanca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Racing Ferrol or draw
74%
Racing Ferrol or Unionistas de Salamanca
72%
Draw or Unionistas de Salamanca
54%

Winning margin

Racing Ferrol wins by 2+
22%
Unionistas de Salamanca wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Racing Ferrol 1+ goals
74%
Racing Ferrol 2+ goals
39%
Racing Ferrol 3+ goals
15%
Unionistas de Salamanca 1+ goals
61%
Unionistas de Salamanca 2+ goals
24%
Unionistas de Salamanca 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Racing Ferrol (draw refunded)
64%
Unionistas de Salamanca (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Racing Ferrol at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.94 · 82 matches

Unionistas de Salamanca away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.27 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Racing Ferrol attack 1.41 + Unionistas de Salamanca defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.34

Unionistas de Salamanca attack 0.91 + Racing Ferrol defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Racing Ferrol scores more
46%
level
28%
Unionistas de Salamanca scores more
26%

Racing Ferrol at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Racing Ferrol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Ferrol
LDDDD
Salamanca
WDWLD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Racing Ferrol host Unionistas de Salamanca

October 18, 2026: Racing Ferrol take on Unionistas de Salamanca in Primera División RFEF - Group 1. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Racing Ferrol host Unionistas de Salamanca at Estadio Municipal da Malata.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.