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Racing Ferrol vs Ponferradina — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Racing Ferrol
Racing Ferrol
Preview
16:00
Ponferradina
Ponferradina
11/1/2026Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 10Estadio Municipal da Malata
40%
Racing Ferrol
model favours
40%30%30%

90% of Ponferradina’s matches stay under 2.5 goals

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
66%
under 2.5 goals
41%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Racing Ferrol40%
×Draw30%
Ponferradina30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Racing Ferrol
1.14
Ponferradina
0.94

Racing Ferrol creates 21% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 57 away

creates per match

Racing Ferrol
1.41
Ponferradina
0.95

allows per match

Racing Ferrol
0.94
Ponferradina
0.86

finishing

Racing Ferrol+0.00on par
Ponferradina+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Racing Ferrol ↓

Ponferradina →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Racing Ferrol or draw
70%
Racing Ferrol or Ponferradina
70%
Draw or Ponferradina
60%

Winning margin

Racing Ferrol wins by 2+
17%
Ponferradina wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Racing Ferrol 1+ goals
68%
Racing Ferrol 2+ goals
32%
Racing Ferrol 3+ goals
11%
Ponferradina 1+ goals
61%
Ponferradina 2+ goals
24%
Ponferradina 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Racing Ferrol (draw refunded)
57%
Ponferradina (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Racing Ferrol at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.94 · 82 matches

Ponferradina away — creates 0.95, concedes 0.86 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Racing Ferrol attack 1.41 + Ponferradina defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.14

Ponferradina attack 0.95 + Racing Ferrol defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Racing Ferrol scores more
40%
level
30%
Ponferradina scores more
30%

Racing Ferrol at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Racing Ferrol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in only 20% of Ponferradina’s matches
  • Ponferradina score first in only 30% of matches

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Ferrol
LDDDD
Ponferradina
LDWDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Racing Ferrol face Ponferradina (Primera División RFEF - Group 1)

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 returns with Racing Ferrol hosting Ponferradina. Match starts November 1, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Racing Ferrol host Ponferradina at Estadio Municipal da Malata.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.