Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Racing Ferrol vs Lugo — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Racing Ferrol
Racing Ferrol
Preview
15:00
Lugo
Lugo
4/4/2027Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 31Estadio Municipal da Malata
46%
Racing Ferrol
model favours
46%28%25%

Lugo score first in only 27% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
62%
under 2.5 goals
43%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Racing Ferrol46%
×Draw28%
Lugo25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Racing Ferrol
1.31
Lugo
0.89

Racing Ferrol creates 47% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 57 away

creates per match

Racing Ferrol
1.41
Lugo
0.84

allows per match

Racing Ferrol
0.94
Lugo
1.21

finishing

Racing Ferrol+0.00on par
Lugo+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Racing Ferrol ↓

Lugo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Racing Ferrol or draw
75%
Racing Ferrol or Lugo
72%
Draw or Lugo
54%

Winning margin

Racing Ferrol wins by 2+
22%
Lugo wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Racing Ferrol 1+ goals
73%
Racing Ferrol 2+ goals
38%
Racing Ferrol 3+ goals
14%
Lugo 1+ goals
59%
Lugo 2+ goals
22%
Lugo 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Racing Ferrol (draw refunded)
65%
Lugo (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Racing Ferrol at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.94 · 82 matches

Lugo away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.21 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Racing Ferrol attack 1.41 + Lugo defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.31

Lugo attack 0.84 + Racing Ferrol defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Racing Ferrol scores more
46%
level
28%
Lugo scores more
25%

Racing Ferrol at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Racing Ferrol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • When Lugo score first, they win 88% of the time
  • Both teams score in only 19% of Lugo’s matches
  • 68% of Lugo’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • Lugo win just 21% of their away games

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Ferrol
LDDDD
Lugo
DWLWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Racing Ferrol face Lugo (Primera División RFEF - Group 1)

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 returns with Racing Ferrol hosting Lugo. Match starts April 4, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Racing Ferrol host Lugo at Estadio Municipal da Malata.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.