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Racing FC Union Luxembourg vs Swift Hesperange — National Division 2018

Racing FC Union Luxembourg
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
FT
2 – 5
HT: 1 – 4
Swift Hesperange
Swift Hesperange
3/17/2024National DivisionNational Division · Round 21Stade Achille Hammerel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Racing FC Union Luxembourg30%
×Draw23%
Swift Hesperange46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Racing FC Union Luxembourg
1.37
Swift Hesperange
1.74

Swift Hesperange creates 27% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 90 away

creates per match

Racing FC Union Luxembourg
1.64
Swift Hesperange
2.10

allows per match

Racing FC Union Luxembourg
1.38
Swift Hesperange
1.10

finishing

Racing FC Union Luxembourg+0.00on par
Swift Hesperange+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Racing FC Union Luxembourg ↓

Swift Hesperange →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Racing FC Union Luxembourg or draw
54%
Racing FC Union Luxembourg or Swift Hesperange
77%
Draw or Swift Hesperange
70%

Winning margin

Racing FC Union Luxembourg wins by 2+
13%
Swift Hesperange wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Racing FC Union Luxembourg 1+ goals
75%
Racing FC Union Luxembourg 2+ goals
40%
Racing FC Union Luxembourg 3+ goals
16%
Swift Hesperange 1+ goals
82%
Swift Hesperange 2+ goals
52%
Swift Hesperange 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Racing FC Union Luxembourg (draw refunded)
40%
Swift Hesperange (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Racing FC Union Luxembourg at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.38 · 112 matches

Swift Hesperange away — creates 2.10, concedes 1.10 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Racing FC Union Luxembourg attack 1.64 + Swift Hesperange defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.37

Swift Hesperange attack 2.10 + Racing FC Union Luxembourg defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Racing FC Union Luxembourg scores more
30%
level
23%
Swift Hesperange scores more
46%

Swift Hesperange at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Swift Hesperange will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Racing FC Union Luxembourg vs Swift Hesperange

Swift Hesperange beat Racing FC Union Luxembourg 5-2 in National Division on March 17, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Achille Hammerel in Luxembourg.