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Racing de Casablanca vs AS Salé — Botola 2 2025

Racing de Casablanca
Racing de Casablanca
FT
3 – 1
AS Salé
AS Salé
2/6/2021Botola 2Botola 2 · Round 9Stade Père-Jégo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Racing de Casablanca44%
×Draw28%
AS Salé28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Racing de Casablanca
1.31
AS Salé
0.97

Racing de Casablanca creates 35% more chances

Season form · 121 home / 90 away

creates per match

Racing de Casablanca
1.13
AS Salé
0.92

allows per match

Racing de Casablanca
1.01
AS Salé
1.50

finishing

Racing de Casablanca+0.00on par
AS Salé+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Racing de Casablanca ↓

AS Salé →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Racing de Casablanca or draw
72%
Racing de Casablanca or AS Salé
72%
Draw or AS Salé
56%

Winning margin

Racing de Casablanca wins by 2+
20%
AS Salé wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Racing de Casablanca 1+ goals
73%
Racing de Casablanca 2+ goals
38%
Racing de Casablanca 3+ goals
14%
AS Salé 1+ goals
62%
AS Salé 2+ goals
25%
AS Salé 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Racing de Casablanca (draw refunded)
62%
AS Salé (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Racing de Casablanca at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.01 · 121 matches

AS Salé away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.50 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Racing de Casablanca attack 1.13 + AS Salé defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.31

AS Salé attack 0.92 + Racing de Casablanca defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Racing de Casablanca scores more
44%
level
28%
AS Salé scores more
28%

Racing de Casablanca at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Racing de Casablanca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Botola 2: Racing de Casablanca 3–1 AS Salé

Racing de Casablanca beat AS Salé 3-1 in Botola 2 on February 6, 2021.

The match was played at Stade Père-Jégo in Casablanca.