Racing Cordoba vs San Telmo: Preview & Prediction

Racing Cordoba

Preview

19:00

San Telmo

7/26/2026

Primera Nacional · Round 22Estadio Miguel Sancho

50%

Racing Cordoba

model favours

50%27%23%

Racing Cordoba score first in only 17% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0

likely score

61%

under 2.5 goals

43%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Racing Cordoba50%

×Draw27%

San Telmo23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Racing CordobaExpected goals in this matchSan Telmo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

0.85

Racing Cordoba

1.40

San Telmo

0.85

Racing Cordoba creates 65% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 99 away

1.35

creates per match

0.87

0.84

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Racing Cordoba

1.35

San Telmo

0.87

allows per match

Racing Cordoba

0.84

San Telmo

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Racing Cordoba+0.00on par

San Telmo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Racing Cordoba ↓

San Telmo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Racing Cordoba or draw

77%

Racing Cordoba or San Telmo

73%

Draw or San Telmo

50%

Winning margin

Racing Cordoba wins by 2+

24%

San Telmo wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Racing Cordoba 1+ goals

75%

Racing Cordoba 2+ goals

41%

Racing Cordoba 3+ goals

17%

San Telmo 1+ goals

57%

San Telmo 2+ goals

21%

San Telmo 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Racing Cordoba (draw refunded)

69%

San Telmo (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Racing Cordoba at home — creates 1.35, concedes 0.84 · 63 matches

San Telmo away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.45 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Racing Cordoba attack 1.35 + San Telmo defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.40

San Telmo attack 0.87 + Racing Cordoba defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Racing Cordoba scores more

50%

level

27%

San Telmo scores more

23%

Racing Cordoba at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Racing Cordoba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

San Telmo score first in only 20% of matches
75% of Racing Cordoba’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
70% of San Telmo’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
San Telmo raise their game against the top half — 32% wins vs the upper half, only 26% vs the lower

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form

Cordoba

LWDLW

Telmo

LLWDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff