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Røa W vs LSK Kvinner W — Toppserien 2021

Røa W
Røa W
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
LSK Kvinner W
LSK Kvinner W
3/23/2024ToppserienToppserien · Round 2Røabanen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Røa W27%
×Draw24%
LSK Kvinner W49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Røa W
1.19
LSK Kvinner W
1.70

LSK Kvinner W creates 43% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 65 away

creates per match

Røa W
1.04
LSK Kvinner W
1.65

allows per match

Røa W
1.75
LSK Kvinner W
1.34

finishing

Røa W+0.00on par
LSK Kvinner W+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Røa W ↓

LSK Kvinner W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Røa W or draw
51%
Røa W or LSK Kvinner W
76%
Draw or LSK Kvinner W
73%

Winning margin

Røa W wins by 2+
11%
LSK Kvinner W wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Røa W 1+ goals
70%
Røa W 2+ goals
33%
Røa W 3+ goals
12%
LSK Kvinner W 1+ goals
82%
LSK Kvinner W 2+ goals
51%
LSK Kvinner W 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Røa W (draw refunded)
35%
LSK Kvinner W (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Røa W at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.75 · 55 matches

LSK Kvinner W away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.34 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Røa W attack 1.04 + LSK Kvinner W defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.19

LSK Kvinner W attack 1.65 + Røa W defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Røa W scores more
27%
level
24%
LSK Kvinner W scores more
49%

LSK Kvinner W at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "LSK Kvinner W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Toppserien: Røa W 1–0 LSK Kvinner W

Røa W beat LSK Kvinner W 1-0 in Toppserien on March 23, 2024.

The match was played at Røabanen in Oslo.