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Quindio vs Huila — Copa Colombia 2019

Quindio
Quindio
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Huila
Huila
3/22/2019Copa ColombiaCopa Colombia · Group Stage - 3Estadio Centenario (Armenia)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Quindio40%
×Draw27%
Huila33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Quindio
1.31
Huila
1.18

Quindio creates 11% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 12 away

creates per match

Quindio
1.11
Huila
1.25

allows per match

Quindio
1.11
Huila
1.50

finishing

Quindio+0.00on par
Huila+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Quindio ↓

Huila →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Quindio or draw
67%
Quindio or Huila
73%
Draw or Huila
60%

Winning margin

Quindio wins by 2+
18%
Huila wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Quindio 1+ goals
73%
Quindio 2+ goals
38%
Quindio 3+ goals
14%
Huila 1+ goals
69%
Huila 2+ goals
33%
Huila 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Quindio (draw refunded)
54%
Huila (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Quindio at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.11 · 18 matches

Huila away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.50 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Quindio attack 1.11 + Huila defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.31

Huila attack 1.25 + Quindio defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Quindio scores more
40%
level
27%
Huila scores more
33%

Quindio at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Quindio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Quindio 1 – 3 Huila

Huila beat Quindio 3-1 in Copa Colombia on March 22, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Centenario (Armenia).