Queen's Park 0–0 Cowdenbeath: Result & Stats

Queen's Park

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Cowdenbeath

9/1/2018

League Two · Round 5Hampden Park (Glasgow)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Queen's Park50%

×Draw26%

Cowdenbeath24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Queen's ParkExpected goals in this matchCowdenbeath

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

0.96

Queen's Park

1.50

Cowdenbeath

0.96

Queen's Park creates 56% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 60 away

1.56

creates per match

0.88

1.04

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Queen's Park

1.56

Cowdenbeath

0.88

allows per match

Queen's Park

1.04

Cowdenbeath

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Queen's Park+0.00on par

Cowdenbeath+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Queen's Park ↓

Cowdenbeath →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Queen's Park or draw

76%

Queen's Park or Cowdenbeath

74%

Draw or Cowdenbeath

50%

Winning margin

Queen's Park wins by 2+

25%

Cowdenbeath wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Queen's Park 1+ goals

78%

Queen's Park 2+ goals

44%

Queen's Park 3+ goals

19%

Cowdenbeath 1+ goals

62%

Cowdenbeath 2+ goals

25%

Cowdenbeath 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Queen's Park (draw refunded)

67%

Cowdenbeath (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Queen's Park at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.04 · 45 matches

Cowdenbeath away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.45 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Queen's Park attack 1.56 + Cowdenbeath defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.50

Cowdenbeath attack 0.88 + Queen's Park defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Queen's Park scores more

50%

level

26%

Cowdenbeath scores more

24%

Queen's Park at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Queen's Park will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

57'

J. Pyper← D. Marsh

58'

K. Renton← J. Sheerin

60'

C. Foy← G. McLauchlan

67'

E. East← L. Hawke

71'

A. Martin← S. McLean

Queen's

Cowdenbeath

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: G. MacPherson

60'▲C. Foy←▼G. McLauchlan

67'▲E. East←▼L. Hawke

71'▲A. Martin←▼S. McLean

Queen's Park substitutes

FoyEastMartinMillerSharpeMcLarenLauchlan

Manager: G. Bollan

57'▲J. Pyper←▼D. Marsh

58'▲K. Renton←▼J. Sheerin

Cowdenbeath substitutes

PyperRentonKaySwanFotheringhamGoodfellowDeas