Queen of the South 2–0 Peterhead: Result & Stats

Queen of the South

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Peterhead

J. Todd 65'

E. East 21'

10/15/2022

League #183 · Round 11Palmerston Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Queen of the South62%

×Draw21%

Peterhead17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Queen of the SouthExpected goals in this matchPeterhead

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.06

0.99

Queen of the South

2.06

Peterhead

0.99

Queen of the South creates 108% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 12 away

1.78

creates per match

0.83

1.15

allows per match

2.33

creates per match

Queen of the South

1.78

Peterhead

0.83

allows per match

Queen of the South

1.15

Peterhead

2.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Queen of the South+0.00on par

Peterhead+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Queen of the South ↓

Peterhead →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Queen of the South or draw

83%

Queen of the South or Peterhead

79%

Draw or Peterhead

38%

Winning margin

Queen of the South wins by 2+

38%

Peterhead wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Queen of the South 1+ goals

87%

Queen of the South 2+ goals

61%

Queen of the South 3+ goals

34%

Peterhead 1+ goals

63%

Peterhead 2+ goals

26%

Peterhead 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Queen of the South (draw refunded)

78%

Peterhead (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Queen of the South at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.15 · 27 matches

Peterhead away — creates 0.83, concedes 2.33 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Queen of the South attack 1.78 + Peterhead defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.06

Peterhead attack 0.83 + Queen of the South defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Queen of the South scores more

62%

level

21%

Peterhead scores more

17%

Queen of the South at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Queen of the South will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'

E. Walusimbi

21'

E. East↳ C. McGrory

60'

M. Ruth← R. Paton

61'

H. Cochrane← C. McGrory

65'

J. Todd↳ G. Reilly

67'

R. Hefzalla← C. O’Keefe

77'

D. Strachan← E. Walusimbi

78'

80'

L. Gibson← G. Reilly

80'

L. Connelly← J. Todd

86'

J. Carre

Queen

Peterhead

1

5

16

26

19

2

23

▼

Walusimbi

10

Dow

11

▼

12

22

1

17

2

12

16

⚽

East

8

⚽

▼

Todd

4

Wilson

15

A

▼

McGrory

9

A

▼

Reilly

11

Murray

7

▼

Paton

Manager: W. Gibson

60'▲M. Ruth←▼R. Paton

61'▲H. Cochrane←▼C. McGrory

80'▲L. Gibson←▼G. Reilly

80'▲L. Connelly←▼J. Todd

Queen of the South substitutes

19Ruth6Cochrane27Gibson10Connelly20Irving22Bange3Quitongo18McKechnie30Cowie

Manager: J. McInally

67'▲R. Hefzalla←▼C. O’Keefe

77'▲D. Strachan←▼E. Walusimbi

Peterhead substitutes

28Hefzalla15Strachan20McLeod21Murray7Asare27Wood18Brown24Kisuka