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Queen of the South vs Partick — League Cup 2018

Queen of the South
Queen of the South
Pens
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Partick
Partick
10/13/2020League CupLeague Cup · Group Stage - 4Palmerston Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Queen of the South40%
×Draw22%
Partick38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Queen of the South
1.83
Partick
1.78

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 10 home / 15 away

creates per match

Queen of the South
2.00
Partick
2.07

allows per match

Queen of the South
1.50
Partick
1.67

finishing

Queen of the South+0.00on par
Partick+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Queen of the South ↓

Partick →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Queen of the South or draw
62%
Queen of the South or Partick
78%
Draw or Partick
60%

Winning margin

Queen of the South wins by 2+
21%
Partick wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Queen of the South 1+ goals
84%
Queen of the South 2+ goals
54%
Queen of the South 3+ goals
28%
Partick 1+ goals
83%
Partick 2+ goals
53%
Partick 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Queen of the South (draw refunded)
51%
Partick (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Queen of the South at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.50 · 10 matches

Partick away — creates 2.07, concedes 1.67 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Queen of the South attack 2.00 + Partick defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.83

Partick attack 2.07 + Queen of the South defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Queen of the South scores more
40%
level
22%
Partick scores more
38%

Queen of the South at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Queen of the South will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Cup: Queen of the South 0–0 Partick

Queen of the South and Partick drew 0-0 in League Cup on October 13, 2020.

The match was played at Palmerston Park in Dumfries.