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QPR vs West Ham — Championship 2025

QPR
QPR
Preview
15:00
West Ham
West Ham
2/27/2027ChampionshipChampionship · Round 34Loftus Road
Big match
37%
QPR
model favours
37%28%35%

Even after scoring first, West Ham win only 44%

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
59%
under 2.5 goals
48%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

QPR37%
×Draw28%
West Ham35%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

QPR
1.19
West Ham
1.15

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 39 home / 3 away

creates per match

QPR
1.38
West Ham
0.67

allows per match

QPR
1.62
West Ham
1.00

finishing

QPR+0.00on par
West Ham+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

QPR ↓

West Ham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

QPR or draw
65%
QPR or West Ham
72%
Draw or West Ham
63%

Winning margin

QPR wins by 2+
16%
West Ham wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

QPR 1+ goals
70%
QPR 2+ goals
33%
QPR 3+ goals
12%
West Ham 1+ goals
68%
West Ham 2+ goals
32%
West Ham 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

QPR (draw refunded)
51%
West Ham (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

QPR at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.62 · 39 matches

West Ham away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

QPR attack 1.38 + West Ham defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.19

West Ham attack 0.67 + QPR defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

QPR scores more
37%
level
28%
West Ham scores more
35%

QPR at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "QPR will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • West Ham win just 23% of their away games
  • 23% of West Ham’s goals come in the first 15 minutes
  • 32% of West Ham’s goals come after the 75th minute

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
QPR
WDLLL
Ham
WLLLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: QPR host West Ham

February 27, 2027: QPR take on West Ham in Championship. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

QPR host West Ham at Loftus Road.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.