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QPR vs Rotherham — Championship 2018

QPR
QPR
FT
3 – 2
HT: 3 – 1
Rotherham
Rotherham
L. Dykes 45+4' (pen)
B. Osayi-Samuel 45+1'
I. Chair 20'
F. Ladapo 84'
M. Smith 38'
11/24/2020ChampionshipChampionship · Round 13Kiyan Prince Foundation Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

QPR58%
×Draw24%
Rotherham18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

QPR
1.69
Rotherham
0.80

QPR creates 111% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 12 away

creates per match

QPR
1.31
Rotherham
0.47

allows per match

QPR
1.12
Rotherham
2.06

finishing

QPR+0.09on par
Rotherham-0.05on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

QPR ↓

Rotherham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

QPR or draw
82%
QPR or Rotherham
76%
Draw or Rotherham
42%

Winning margin

QPR wins by 2+
33%
Rotherham wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

QPR 1+ goals
82%
QPR 2+ goals
50%
QPR 3+ goals
24%
Rotherham 1+ goals
55%
Rotherham 2+ goals
19%
Rotherham 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

QPR (draw refunded)
77%
Rotherham (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

QPR at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.12 · 58 matches

Rotherham away — creates 0.47, concedes 2.06 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

QPR attack 1.31 + Rotherham defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.69

Rotherham attack 0.47 + QPR defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

QPR scores more
58%
level
24%
Rotherham scores more
18%

QPR at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "QPR will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
I. ChairQPRQPR · M
7.7

Match Events

20'
I. Chair↳ B. Osayi-Samuel
38'
M. Smith↳ W. Harding
45'
Ben Wiles
45+1'
B. Osayi-Samuel↳ G. Cameron
45+4'
L. DykesPenalty
46'
M. Crooks← D. Barlaser
46'
J. Lindsay← T. Clarke
59'
M. Olosunde← F. Jozefzoon
60'
M. Bonne← C. Willock
66'
T. Carroll← G. Cameron
74'
F. Ladapo← K. Vassell
79'
A. Adomah← B. Osayi-Samuel
80'
Michael Ihiekwe
84'
G. Hirst← W. Harding
84'
F. Ladapo
90'
Matt Crooks

Possession

52%QPR

Shots

14QPR

Pass accuracy

53%QPR

Statistics

QPRRotherham
Overview
52%Possession48%
14Total Shots13
5Corners4
9Fouls19
Shots
14Total Shots13
5On Target5
6Off Target4
3Blocked4
11Inside Box9
3Outside Box4
Passing
52%Possession48%
349Total Passes307
248Accurate Passes196
71%Pass Accuracy64%
Goalkeeping
3Saves1
Discipline
9Fouls19
0Yellow Cards3
5Offsides7

QPR 3 – 2 Rotherham

QPR beat Rotherham 3-2 in Championship on November 24, 2020.

Goals: I. Chair (20'), M. Smith (38'), B. Osayi-Samuel (45+1'), L. Dykes (45+4' pen), F. Ladapo (84').

QPR controlled possession (52%) and registered 14 shots to 13.

The match was played at Kiyan Prince Foundation Stadium in London.