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QPR vs Preston — Championship 2018

QPR
QPR
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Preston
Preston
T. Cannon 63', 59'
4/7/2023ChampionshipChampionship · Round 40Loftus Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 56+ matches

QPR47%
×Draw26%
Preston27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

QPR
1.47
Preston
1.06

QPR creates 39% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 56 away

creates per match

QPR
1.32
Preston
1.01

allows per match

QPR
1.11
Preston
1.62

finishing

QPR+0.08on par
Preston-0.01on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

QPR ↓

Preston →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

QPR or draw
73%
QPR or Preston
74%
Draw or Preston
53%

Winning margin

QPR wins by 2+
23%
Preston wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

QPR 1+ goals
77%
QPR 2+ goals
43%
QPR 3+ goals
18%
Preston 1+ goals
65%
Preston 2+ goals
29%
Preston 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

QPR (draw refunded)
63%
Preston (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

QPR at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.11 · 57 matches

Preston away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.62 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

QPR attack 1.32 + Preston defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.47

Preston attack 1.01 + QPR defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

QPR scores more
47%
level
26%
Preston scores more
27%

QPR at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "QPR will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

28
T. CannonPrestonPreston · F
8.2

Match Events

45+2'
J. Onomah← A. Browne
59'
T. Cannon↳ R. Brady
63'
T. Cannon↳ J. Onomah
67'
J. Lowe← K. Paal
67'
A. Adomah← E. Laird
74'
L. Amos← S. Johansen
78'
Freddie Woodman
80'
C. Martin← L. Dykes
80'
Álvaro Fernández← R. Brady
80'
B. Woodburn← T. Parrott
88'
R. Ledson← D. Johnson

Possession

47%QPR

Shots

10QPR

Pass accuracy

49%QPR

Statistics

QPRPreston
Overview
47%Possession53%
10Total Shots12
6Corners6
10Fouls6
Shots
10Total Shots12
1On Target6
6Off Target4
3Blocked2
9Inside Box11
1Outside Box1
Passing
47%Possession53%
279Total Passes325
175Accurate Passes210
63%Pass Accuracy65%
Goalkeeping
3Saves1
Discipline
10Fouls6
0Yellow Cards1
1Offsides2

Match Recap: QPR vs Preston

Preston beat QPR 2-0 in Championship on April 7, 2023.

Goals: T. Cannon (59', 63').

Preston controlled possession (53%) and registered 12 shots to 10.

The match was played at Loftus Road in London.